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1. The value of
organisational sustainability
Generations of investors,
managers and fund managers have asked the deceptively simple question, “How
can we predict the future value of the firm?” Historically, the answers have
been found in complex financial modelling, econometric forecasts and
statistical analysis. Yet, there is a trend towards more qualitative analysis
of the current and future value of the firm.
Organisational sustainability
research pioneers such as Dunphy, Griffiths and Benn (2003) use qualitative
analysis of firms to argue for indices of financial, environmental and human
sustainability. They provide a case for the adoption of corporate
sustainability principles in every element of the organisation. Dunphy et. al.
(2003:12) state “an organisation is sustainable [when] its stakeholders
continue to support it”. Stakeholders include financiers, employees and the
wider society and environment, which form the context in which the firm
operates. Dunphy et. al. propose the adoption of an environmental
sustainability index, in conjunction with a human sustainability index, which
would measure the progress of the organisation along a potential six steps to
genuine sustainability. The authors of this paper believe that this concept of
systematically analysing environmental and human sustainability can be taken
one step further, and might be a valuable addition to the methodology used by
securities analysts as they value firms for investment purposes.
The work of De Geus (1999) on
the lifespan of companies, Collins and Porras (2000) on visionary
organisations, Elkington (2001) on the triple bottom line, Senge (2000), Beer
and Nohria (2000) on multiple objective functions, Drucker (2001) on the rise
of the new social entrepreneurship, Watson Wyatt (2002) on human capital
indices and Collins (2001) on companies which are “built to last”, has a
common sub-theme: that organisational sustainability in general, and human
capital sustainability in particular, can be seen as potential indicators of
the future performance of the firm.
This body of literature, and
additional research by the authors of this paper, leads to the following
proposition: As the sustainability of human capital is likely to influence the
future financial performance of the firm, it needs to be systematically
analysed by the financial markets. This would be a complementary process to
more traditional financial measures.
To systematically analyse the
sustainability of human capital in a firm within its industry sector requires
a level of objectivity, and an expert system can provide objectivity. This
paper presents the outline of a future expert system, titled Human Capital
Analyser (HCA), based on principles of organisational and human capital
sustainability. This expert system bridges a gap between otherwise disparate
fields of organisational sustainability and corporate finance. The Human
Capital Analyser does not, at this stage, deal with environmental analysis, as
further research needs to be done to ensure appropriate frameworks and
metrics.
1.1
Evidence for the financial impact of sustainable human capital
Of specific interest to the
organisational sustainability debate is the Watson Wyatt Worldwide Research
(2002), which indicates superior human capital is a leading, rather than
lagging, indicator of future financial success. Surveys were administered in
1999 and 2001 to fifty one organisations in North America and Europe. The
organisations wereplaced into three groups based on their overall Human
Capital Index (HCI) scores. The HCI was derived from matching survey data to
market value, returns to shareholders and Tobin’s Q to create an index of
human capital. Using the organisations’ five-year total returns to
shareholders, the researchers found that organisations with a low HCI averaged
a 21% five-year return, those with a medium HCI averaged 39% and those with a
high HCI averaged 64%. This analysis noted that human capital can be managed
and exploited to increase shareholder value.
Supporting this research are
Bassi, Lev, Low, McMurrer, & Sissfield (2001) who found that non-financial
insights make up a large proportion of investment decisions. In their survey
of 275 active US institutional investors on their basis for investment,
approximately 35% of investment decisions were reported as based on
non-financial data, of which over half is related to human resources issues,
while other non-financial data includes marketing, strategy and quality. Over
60% indicate that between 20-50% of decisions are non financial. Bassi, et.
al. (2001: 348) note that, although “the quality of the business plan or
strategy is important…The focus is on action.” Therefore, securities analysts
need to distinguish and to report on the capability of the management team to
execute strategy. The future HCA, as an expert system, can assist in a more
systematic analysis of the rhetoric versus the reality of the human capital of
listed firms. This helps to make insights on human capital relatively more
rigorous and transparent.
Further evidence of the
connection between sustainable human capital and the financial value of the
firm is seen in Hewitt and Associates examination of employee engagement and
commitment to create an index of Best Employers, 2003. They found in their
Australian data that Best Employers experienced 13% revenue growth between
2000 and 2002 compared with 7% for other companies. Average profit growth was
21% in the same period (2000-2002) for Best Employer companies compared with
negative 44% for other, non-Best Employer, companies in the survey. This study
is part of a wider study that covers over 25 countries, 350 companies and
125,000 employees.
Boston Consulting Group
researched one hundred German companies, covering ten industrial sectors over
a seven year period from 1987-1994, (Bilmes, Wetzker, and Xhonneux (1997).
Companies which produced a greater total shareholder return than their
competitors also scored highly on such measures as: expenditure per employee,
contribution of employees as reflected in mission statements, promotion
opportunities and flexible work hours, among other evidence of sustainable
human capital practices.
Collins’ (2001) “visionary”
companies ploughed a greater percentage of year’s earnings back into the
company, returning less in cash dividends to shareholders. They invested more
heavily in management practices and human capital, specifically in training,
recruiting and the professional development of staff, and in R&D and property
and plant. Visionary companies outperformed their non-visionary counterparts
on all key financial measures. Prior to this, Collins and Porras (1994) had
analysed eighteen paired comparison visionary companies, and these companies
had outperformed the US stock market, by a factor of fifteen at the time of
the study. They were six times more successful than comparison companies.
Individual leaders, no matter w
Another study indicating links
between human capital and financial performance is Schuster’s (1986) employee
surveys and interviews of 1300 of the largest U.S. industrials and
non-industrials. His aim was to research whether a significant relationship
exists between the way in which organisations manage their employees and
profitability. His findings included a statistically positive relationship
between the use of employee-centred management practices and superior
financial performance. An average return on equity of those firms at the time
using one or more innovative, sustainable human capital practices was 11%
higher than those firms not using any of the practices.
In terms of more specific
components of sustainable human capital, Ranft and Lord (2000) recognise that
strategically significant intellectual property, in some cases, rests within
individuals, rather than in the firm itself, a potentially important issue for
financial markets to incorporate in their analysis. Also, Gupta, Iyer, and
Aronson (2000) have noted that knowledge management can have an impact on the
efficiency and the performance of the firm.
The American Management
Association 1996 study indicated a strong correlation between increased
training budgets and larger profits and productivity flowing from workforce
reductions. The study found that organisations performed better when they were
strategically well-positioned in the changing environment and pushed the pace
of internal organisational change fast enough to match the external pace of
change, cited in Dunphy (2000).
Without these kinds of
insights into the relative sustainability of human capital within firms within
an industry sector, the investment analysis process is suboptimal.
A major study by Turner and
Crawford (1998) of 243 case studies in Australia and New Zealand to determine
the capabilities that drive corporate renewal found specific clusters of
competencies affect performance, including business technology (operational),
market responsiveness (operational), performance management
(operational/reshaping), engagement and development of employees (reshaping).
Quantitative financial analysis, as typically used by securities analysts,
would not be able to distinguish these human capital capabilities.
Kotter and Heskett (1992)
found that corporate culture has a major effect on corporate performance and,
although difficult to change, corporate culture can be made more performance
enhancing. O'Reilly and Pfeffer (2000) examine successful companies that use
ordinary people to achieve extraordinary results and find that an organisation
that has well-articulated values, puts culture first, has a strong alignment
and consistency in the people-centred practices that express those values, and
where senior management maintain these values, are able to compete very
successfully. Dunphy and Stace (2001), provide case studies of companies which
improved financial performance as a result of appropriate leadership styles
and change management strategies.
Cox and Blake (1991),
concluded there are six areas where specific human capital practices are
highly related to organisational performance. Abbott, De Cieri, and Iverson
(1997), provide an examination of the dollar cost associated with exit of high
performing managerial women. Total costs (direct and indirect) associated with
separation, replacement and training of these and new employees are
considerable. Researchers such as Royal (2000), Collins (2001), Dunphy (2000),
Turner and Crawford (1998), Watson Wyatt Worldwide Research (2002) and Bassi
et al. (2001) use rigorous qualitative techniques to provide evidence for
their findings on the positive relationship between sophisticated use of human
capital and future financial performance of the firm.
Typically, few of these of
these insights systematically inform the process by which securities analysts
calculate earnings forecasts.
2. How do securities
analysts analyse listed companies?
Securities analysts, on either
the sell side or buy side, make investment recommendations in a research
report, on a “relative basis comparing a companies’ performance within a
sector or industry... It is not limited to financial statements, [and
includes] research on the company, industry, product or sector, and public
statements by and interviews with executives of the company, its customers and
suppliers” (Fernandez 2001). Securities analysts work for a brokerage firm,
bank, investment bank and or fund management institution. They draw financial
data from published financial accounts, and then create earnings forecasts
using financial modeling.
The quantitative component of
the securities analysts work is underpinned by undergraduate qualifications in
finance and business, or in specialised quantitative fields such as
engineering or actuarial studies (Royal & Althauser, 2003). Certification of
securities analysts in Australia, by the Securities Institute and similar
bodies, is centred on a demonstration of highly developed quantitative skills.
As the skill sets have been so strong in quantitative areas, a knowledge gap
has emerged in terms of analysts’ skills in analysing qualitative data, such
as human capital data.
More than half of the shares
issued by US based companies have become controlled by institutional investors
who are becoming increasingly concerned with the evaluation of a firm’s
internal performance, (Szarycz, 2001). In Australia, as the number of retail
investors increases, through compulsory superannuation levies, the investing
public is increasingly interested in all elements of firm performance.
However, as most corporate websites and brokers reports indicate, the
performance measures used are primarily described in quantitative and
financial terms, such as Economic Value Added (EVA), Cash Flow Return On
Investing (CFROI), other accounting ratios, Balanced Scorecard, Value Based
Management (VBM) and Activity Based Costing (ABC).
Lev, (2001:17) notes that
there is currently intense interest in the intangible assets of a firm, which
may include human capital. Many companies do not have systematic ways of
either valuing or leveraging intangibles, yet intangibles are fundamental
drivers of innovation. The costs of managing and organising human capital
within firms has been analysed effectively by Mayo (2002). The authors of this
paper argue that the value created by sustainable human capital, rather than
the costs of managing and accounting for human capital, is the more compelling
instigator for systematic human capital analysis in the financial markets.
As noted earlier, the future
HCA can be used by securities analysts to systematically access insights into
human capital. These insights, together with more traditional financial
analysis, provide further transparency into the investment recommendation
process.
2.1
Applying human capital analysis
In complex contemporary
knowledge-based organisations, it is often difficult to distinguish the causes
of sustainable high performance. However, the model presented in Figure 1 does
provide a basis for qualitative analysis of the human capital of a firm. It is
the basis of the HCA, which can be used by securities analysts to identify
emerging patterns in human capital that ultimately affect financial
performance and market valuation. With appropriate training and support, a
securities analyst may be able to use the HCA to systematically access
additional insights into a firm’s human capital.
It is worth warning that human
capital analysis needs to be carefully applied. Delery (1998) and Harris and
Ogbonna (2001) emphasize the complexity of mediating variables between
strategic human resource management and performance. The publication of the
Watson Wyatt research into the links between shareholder value and human
resource management has assisted researchers, who still need to be cautious in
linking complex variables. Delery (1998) notes that some human resource
practices are additive (independent, non overlapping effects on outcomes),
some are interactive (depend on other elements in the system) and some may be
substitutes for one another. So, securities analysts need to be able to access
comprehensive and rigorous data on the subtleties of systems of human capital.
Human capital analysis should always be used in conjunction with traditional
financial analysis.
The HCA, like any expert
system, has specific technical and logical requirements. Representation of
knowledge within the knowledge base component of the expert system is one
major pre-requisite for the development of any expert system. The proposed
expert system incorporates an awareness-based knowledge representation and
knowledge-sharing tool used to represent and share knowledge that flows within
the investment recommendation processes.
3. Closing the skill
gap
An expert system (ES) is a
system that uses human knowledge captured in a computer to solve problems that
ordinarily require human expertise (Turban, 2001). These systems imitate
reasoning processes experts use to solve specific problems. It is claimed that
such systems could function better than any single human expert in making
judgments in a specific, usually narrow, area of expertise (referred to as a
domain). The writers believe that this possibility may have a significant
impact on the task of human capital analysis performed by the securities
analysts when making investment decisions on behalf of their clients. In order
to clarify the role and importance of the proposed knowledge representation
tool within a given context, characteristics of an ES called HCA that can be
used by securities analysts for this purpose is highlighted and discussed in
this section.
The proposed HCA must allow
for the following functionalities wherever necessary:
Generic reasoning
rules that reside in the inference engine component must be able to be broken
by the user; in this capacity the expert system will play the role of an
'adviser',
Knowledge
structures within the knowledge-base component can be restructured by the
user,
Users are degraded
gracefully. This is based on the previous observations made by the capital
investment experts that are already aware of limitations of the users of the
proposed system.
3.1
Expertise of the HCA
Such expertise include the
following types of knowledge:
Organisational
Sustainability
Human Capital
Sustainability
Strategic Human
Resource Management
Organisational
Behaviour
Change Management
The above knowledge enables
securities analysts to make more efficient and effective decisions.
The first and third authors of
this paper acted as the finance expert for the HCA. These persons possess the
following required qualifications as an expert in the area of investment
recommendation processes:
They are
frontrunners of research and practice in human capital analysis with expertise
in teaching, researching and consulting in the areas of Organisational
Sustainability, Human Capital Sustainability, Strategic Human Resource
Management, Organisational Behaviour, Change Management
Also, they have
already identifiable solutions to the problem of human capital analysis (Royal
& O’Donnell, 2002), (Royal, Daneshgar & O’Donnell, 2003) and (Royal and
Althauser, 2003).
They have
explained the solution to a non-expert knowledge engineer (the second author)
clearly, and the knowledge engineer has already understood the solution and
has structured the knowledge, and created a preliminary version of the
knowledge base for the proposed HCA, and is shown in the next section.
3.2
Transferring expertise
The objective of the HCA is to
transfer knowledge from the human capital analysts (the experts) to a computer
system, and then to other securities analysts (nonexperts). This process
involves the following four activities:
Knowledge
Acquisition from experts
Knowledge
representation
Knowledge
inference, and
Knowledge transfer
to the user.
Preliminary results for the
first activity above has already been presented and published in (Royal,
Daneshgar & O’Donnell, 2003). This will lay necessary foundation for the
remaining three activities that constitute the authors current research
activity in progress. In this article an extension of the first activity above
is demonstrated. Such extension focuses on the implementation and design
issues related to the knowledge acquisition and representation, and is
discussed below.
3.3 A
framework for knowledge acquisition:
Knowledge acquisition is the
accumulation, transfer, and transformation of problem-solving expertise from
experts or documented knowledge sources to a computer program for constructing
or expanding the knowledge base (Turban 2001; 411). In this paper a framework
is proposed for acquisition and representation of the knowledge of human
capital as an important factor in making investment decisions (Daneshgar,
2003). The objective of this framework is to arrive at a set of generic rules
as well as domain-specific knowledge structures that constitute the bulk of
the knowledge base and inference engine components of the HCA. A graphical
demonstration of this framework appears as Figure 1 and is explained in more
detail in the next section.
Figure 1: Human capital
drivers of the value of the firm (adapted from Royal, 2000)
4. Deriving the factors
for human capital analysis
As Figure 1 indicates, the
following human capital factors were derived (Royal, 2002:238), as relevant to
the expertise provided by human capital analysts. These factors are structured
on the basis of their variability and will be weighted on the basis of their
importance in the analysis of human capital.
The model examines key
variables which shape management beliefs and perceptions which then drive the
human capital systems, appropriate to the context of the organisation, which
help to drive the value of the firm. Internal influences that affect
managerial beliefs and perceptions and management strategy include: the state
of employment relations, cultural factors, and costs associated with the need
to secure commitment of employees (such as reward, performance management,
career and development systems) and insider-outsider relations.
External influences that
affect managerial beliefs and perceptions and management strategy include
historical trends, the competitive nature of the economic environment,
institutional factors, the nature of the product, technological changes and
the costs associated with recruitment. The internal and external influences
are interrelated, but they have not evolved in a linear fashion.
Even though cause and effect
are less clear in qualitative models than in mathematical models, the HCA
expert system, based on this model, would assist securities analysts to
identify emerging patterns in human capital which ultimately affect financial
performance and hence market valuation. So, the expert system would allow the
securities analyst to access information and insights on themes such as those
listed below. As noted earlier, human capital data can act as a lead indicator
of future financial performance, so these insights are potentially valuable to
securities analysts, their clients and to the finance industry.
Elements of analysis in the
HCA:
1. Organisational
history/culture
2. Macroeconomic
environment
3. Financial data and
market trend
4. Stage of
competitiveness
5. Labour market
conditions
Supply/demand for
labour
Relative costs of
search/recruitment
Salaries
6. Intellectual Capital
Product/services
Trends
7. Importance of
technology
8. Importance of
cross-cultural fitness or alignment
Macro level:
organisational fit with its environment
Micro levels:
internal alignment with strategy
9. Exposure to external
risks/opportunities
10. Employment relations
Union
activity/industrial relations
Cultural
integration/alignment with corporate strategy
Level of engagement
and commitment
Relevance of
insider-outsider relations eg, customer, supplier, etc.
11. Composition of
executive team/board and its alignment with strategy
12. Classification of
human capital systems
Training, recruiting,
career planning within traditional, professional, individual models.
Is the above mix
appropriate in this organisation?
13. Are managerial beliefs
and perceptions consistent with strategy?
14. Overall, are human
capital practices designed to execute strategy?
Insights from this analysis
would be considered by the users of the HCA in addition to traditional forms
of financial data analysis.
5. Criteria for an
appropriate knowledge representation framework
Once the above knowledge is
acquired, it must be organised in an application knowledge base for later use.
The reason for such a need is that throughout this article, the process of
making investment decision is treated as a collaborative process. For example,
a client may seek advice from a securities analyst for making some investment
decisions. The securities analyst, on the other hand, may request a copy of
company profile from various companies before a share purchase is made for
that company. This will make client, securities analysts and prospective
company actors of the potentially collaborative process that performs
investment research for the client. Therefore, in order to effectively manage
such collaborative process it would be necessary to provide actors with
certain degree of automated support that provides required awareness to the
actors within the process so that collaboration among these actors are
maintained at appropriate levels.
Over the years, a variety of
knowledge representation frameworks have been developed each serving specific
purposes depending on the users’ requirements and system development
strategies (Daneshgar, 2003). In search for an appropriate representation tool
for the purpose of the proposed HCA system it was primarily noticed that the
tool must be programmable using existing hardware, software and communication
technologies. Next, the representation tool must be designed so that the facts
and other knowledge contained within them can be used in provision of
awareness to the actors when and where they are needed for maintaining
collaboration among actors.
One condition for successful
implementation of such awareness provisioning mechanism is the presence of a
knowledge representation tool that can represent knowledge about investment
decisions in a way that suits both the storage requirements of the Knowledge
Base component, as well as the reasoning requirements of the Inference Engine
for the proposed HCA.
We may summarise this section
by concluding that the collaborativeness of the investment decisions implies
that:
1. Various actors
within the process rely on services provided by other actors either directly
or indirectly. Such collaborative process on would require The above factors
however require a context
2. For these actors to
collaborate effectively, an awareness provisioning mechanism must be in place
so that awareness requirements of the actors in such collaborative environment
are maintained at appropriate levels.
Development of a knowledge
representation with above characteristics is a challenging task for the
authors and constitutes one of their major research activities in progress.
6. Conclusion
Human capital analysis is
grounded in the literature on organisational sustainability, pioneered by
Dunphy (2000) and extended in the research of Drucker (2001), Senge (2000),
Collins and Porras (2000) De Geus (1999), Elkington (2001) and Collins (2001).
This paper presents an expert system, called “Human Capital Analyser” to
systematically bridge the knowledge gap in the work of securities analysts to
assist them to analyse human capital in listed firms. Insights from the human
capital of firms can provide further transparency in the investment
recommendation process. The HCA expert system acts as a theoretical and
practical bridge between corporate finance and organisational sustainability.
More objective analysis of human capital by securities analysts can act as a
force for positive change, to ensure clearer alignment of human capital with
strategy and thus organisational sustainability. All stakeholders, including
investors, managers and employers, as well as the finance industry, can
benefit from more transparent and systematic human capital analysis.
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